The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has admitted that they are using a variety of models to try and predict the spread and deaths of COVID-19. Through complex forecasting systems, the CDC is making “projections” about what they believe is going to happen. Notice what the CDC says:
“What the Forecasts Aim to Predict – Forecasts based on the use of statistical or mathematical models (subsequently referred to as “models”) aim to predict changes in national- and state-level cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths for the next four weeks. Forecasting teams predict numbers of deaths using different types of data (e.g., COVID-19 data, demographic data, mobility data), methods (see below), and estimates for the impacts of interventions (e.g. social distancing, use of face coverings).” [1]
It is these “model” projections that are impacting our policies, affecting our economy, determining social distancing, closing churches and preventing people from going back to work. And what is so problematic is that these projections are neither concrete nor a guarantee of what will actually happen. They are just projections. In fact, many of the “model” projections are completely wrong.
The science behind hurricane prediction models.
One model claims that by the end of summer there will be 60,000 deaths in the US from COVID-19. [2] Well, we’re not even halfway through spring and we’ve already passed that number. Another “influential” model claims that by summer all coronavirus deaths will end. All COVID-19 deaths will be eliminated. [3] And a third model claims that this year alone, 2020, there can be 40 million deaths and 7 billion infections worldwide. [4]
How is it possible that all of the coronavirus models can be so conflicting and incorrect? Well, because they are only projections. Forecasting the future is not an absolute science. Data changes, data is always being revised and sometimes the data is just plain wrong. And the models have predicted both the “we are all going to die” scenario and the “we are all going to live” scenario. So there you have it.
The margin of error for stock market prediction models.
The models have spoken. Listen to the models. Obey the models. Embrace the models. Love the models because they are put in place to save you. Go back inside your home because the models have said so. Hide under your bed until the models say you can come out. Board up your home and don’t step outside until the models give you permission. And don’t you dare defy the models.
Submit to the models and don’t question them because they know what is best for you. And don’t worry, the models will tell us when we can all go back to church. The models will open up the schools when they say it’s safe. And the models will tell you when you can go back to work. The models have everything under control. Trust the models. My only question is, “Who’s controlling the models?”
Sources
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
[3] https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/health/ihme-model-death-predictions/index.html
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